🚀Quilty Space Forecasts 150-Launch Rocket Shortage Through 2030

Your satellite launch options are about to shrink

The launch market is short about 150 rockets between now and 2030, according to Quilty Space. And the number could double once US military demand gets counted. If you're building anything that needs to reach orbit, this is your problem too. Russian rockets are off the Western market because of the war in Ukraine, Falcon 9 is retiring as a commercial vehicle, and new rockets like New Glenn and Vulcan are running late. Amazon Leo's constellation is soaking up whatever capacity is left. Your launch slot is the scarce resource now, not your engineering budget. Quilty expects the squeeze to peak in 2028. New Glenn is forecast to fly 8 times that year, 12 in 2029, and 16 in 2030. Starship is the big wildcard: SpaceX hasn't committed to a conventional payload fairing door, and it isn't aggressively selling Starship as a commercial option. The US military has two national security lanes, and the Space Force has flagged a sharp jump in forecast demand for both. SpaceX is already building satellites for the government. Quilty puts the real recovery in the late 2030s.